The outlook for the steel plate market is that the market in 2020 may be better than 2019. From the perspective of side demand, this year's spring steel plate market will have a very good performance.
The first is the recovery of macroeconomic indicators. In the new year, there are obvious signs of a recovery in the macro economy, positive improvements in the medium and long-term loans of enterprises, an increase in the activity of the real economy and a gradual improvement in the macroeconomic situation. This is undoubtedly good news for the steel plate market.
The biggest highlight of the steel plate market in 2020 is non-infrastructure. This year marks the end of China's comprehensive construction of a well-off society and the 13th Five-Year Plan. In order to hedge the downward pressure on the economy, increasing infrastructure investment is bound to become a more important means of this round of counter-cyclical adjustments.
Infrastructure will also become an important force for stabilizing economic growth in 2020. The downward pressure on the economy in the new year is still greater, and infrastructure will play a greater role as a stabilizer for economic development in 2020. It is expected that the start of fixed asset investment projects such as infrastructure construction in the spring of 2020 will start better than expected, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in fixed assets nationwide will pick up. This is also good news for the steel plate market.
But at the same time there will be many factors affecting the market situation of the steel plate, including demand, supply and cost and other aspects. Among the many influencing factors in 2020, the most influential factor is the demand situation.
At present, industrial production and real estate investment are relatively stable. Although export demand has improved due to the "trade truce", there will not be a significant increase; only the acceleration of infrastructure investment can become the biggest bright spot of steel plate consumption this year. In particular, the start-up projects are mainly concentrated in high-speed railways, highways, and water conservancy construction in the western region. These projects consume a large amount of steel and there will be a large demand for steel plates.
For example, about 90% of the mileage of Sichuan-Tibet Railway is tunnels and bridges, and the consumption of steel plates per kilometer is dozens of times that of ordinary railways. In addition, the construction of Xiong'an New District, due to the supporting construction of the underground pipe gallery, has also significantly increased its unit steel consumption.
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